There's a theory going round that graphic novels are the way of the future for the modern comics industry. In fact, I'm one of its most emphatic proponents.

It's a very simple philosophy: when most people (and by that I mean the world at large, not just the present comics audience) pay for a story, they expect it to be complete. Sure, it may be one of a series, but the single product itself - the item they walk out of the shop with - should be self-contained. They want their comics to be presented in a book-style format, to be of a decent length, and they will pay for it.

That's the Future.

Except that future's already here for some. There are people out there, avid supporters of the medium, who will not pick up a 'normal' comic. They do not want to read twenty pages that form only Part 5 Of 12. They do not want something bound with staples. They do not want to have to buy something the moment it comes out or suffer the indignities of hunting for back issues. They want it all, and they want it now. Is that so wrong?

'The smart players are collecting their comics into graphic novel format.' There are some Western publishers who are catering almost exclusively to this audience: AiT/PlanetLar and Top Shelf, for example, produce nothing but graphic novels. Both are seeing their business grow at a fairly high rate.

Of course, not all of these are original graphic novels ("OGNs"); some are collections ("TPBs"). And some are reprints of books previously published by someone else.

But to all intents and purposes, the term 'graphic novel' will suffice. You certainly aren't going to convince the average man in the street - the type who bought DARK KNIGHT RETURNS after seeing the first Tim Burton BATMAN movie, but has bought precious little else since - otherwise. As far as he's concerned, any comic in book form is a graphic novel. And it's largely these people whom this 'future of the industry' is targeted at, so the term will do.

Slowly but surely, the smart players in the industry are collecting their comics into graphic novel format - or are simply producing original graphic novels. On the one hand, this is a real step forward to this market of the future. On the other, it raises some problems that have the potential - if we're not careful - of driving the industry toward another crash. (This column isn't titled "Cassandra Complex" for nothing, you know.)

So bear with me here; this is a Thing in Two Parts. Which is kind of ironic, but there you go. The second part will be my next column, but for now let's deal with...

The Idealism: OGNs For All

This question recently returned to the fore with the launch of Gilbert Hernandez' GRIP: THE STRANGE WORLD OF MEN from DC's Vertigo imprint. Over on Warren Ellis' Delphi forum, a discussion was started in which people were asked why they hadn't bought the first issue of the title. Many replied they had never even heard of GRIP, pointing out the lack of advertising by Vertigo. Some said there was nothing compelling about what little publicity there had been. And others said the story simply wasn't for them.

But a large part of the responses - a common response in general on that forum, it must be said - was: "I'm waiting for the trade." To which, of course, the obvious answer is: "If no-one buys the single issues, there may not be a trade."

This is an old, and very circular, argument. Publishers don't have the money to produce OGNs straight out of the gate, so instead serialise stories in single issues to recoup some, if not all, of the creative costs while the comic is still being produced.

But people who want full stories don't want to read this serialisation. They want the whole thing in a book. They "wait for the trade". If these people make up a large part of the book's intended audience, the single issues don't sell as well as the publisher hoped - and they (not unreasonably) deduce that there's no demand for this story.

'They want the whole thing in a book. They 'wait for the trade.'' It never gets collected. Everyone loses.

So why not just produce the story as an OGN straight out of the gate? Well, most publishers don't want to pay creators for the equivalent of, say, six single comics in one go. (Some publishers who do produce OGNs rely on the creators working for no payment other than royalties, but this isn't practical for the many creators who need their page rate to make ends meet.)

Serialisation allows a publisher to recoup some, if not all, of these creative costs while the comic is still being worked on - and production of a later collection then becomes a fairly cheap endeavour. The problem here is, many people who bought the issues are understandably loath to effectively buy the same thing twice, and will therefore pass on the collection. At the same time, the "graphic novels only" readers won't touch the single issues - meaning less of those costs are recouped to start with.

It's a poser, isn't it?

Here's the kicker: Vertigo itself is producing OGNs - the fumetti I, PAPARAZZI (McGreal, Phillips & Parke) launched Vertigo's new wave of graphic novels in October this year, with 2002 seeing at least another five on the way from the likes of Kyle Baker, Ty Templeton, Howard Chaykin and others.

Which raises the specific question, here: why wasn't GRIP - a deliberately surreal, offbeat and initially confusing story - produced as an OGN? Hernandez is one of the few creators who surely could afford to live without a page rate. But I doubt this was even a factor - more likely the decision was made, naturally, by Vertigo. Yet this is an imprint that has one of the best track records for sales of graphic novels (both originals and reprints) in the industry. It's no surprise that many people expect GRIP to be 'inevitably' collected into a graphic novel.

So let's break down some of the logistics. Be warned, I'm no accountant. But much of the following strikes me as fairly common sense.

Let's imagine a story is commissioned. The page count will be equivalent to a six-part miniseries. The talent is established, and the publisher is confident there will be a decent buying market for this story. (A vital assumption, because if they didn't they wouldn't commission it in the first place.)

How does this get produced as an OGN?

Well, you have to pay the creators. They're going to be working on the equivalent of six comics (even allowing for speedy creators, that's probably four months of their time each) with no up-front pay. Then there's the editor/s, admin people, production people, and so on. You're also losing out on advertisement sales, which one assumes are decent. So that's a large investment.

'Books just cost less per page to print than individual issues.' But the savings are equally real. Only one cover need be produced - that's five months' worth of cover artist payments done away with. You aren't printing the same thing twice, hoping that the single issues will recoup some costs for you - that's a lessening of risk, for sure. The book can go straight into bookstore distribution as well as comic stores - giving you immediate extra revenue, which you simply can't have with single issues. Your solicitation, advertising and promotional costs can all be consolidated into promoting one single book - and the fact that it is a 'book' means more avenues for that publicity.

Plus, there's the profit margin. Simply put, the relative profit on books - that is, allowing for page count and retail cost differences - is higher than on comics. Books just cost less per page to print than individual issues. So assuming the amount of people who buy this book when it hits the shelves is equal to those who would have bought the issues, plus those who would have bought a later collection... well, you just make more money faster. Which helps offset those earlier up-front costs.

(This is all aside, of course, from the intangible aesthetic and idealistic advantages. Everyone gets a complete story, no messing. The package is designed from the outset to be a book, so the usual forced 22-page chapter restriction is lifted. It probably looks better, too - and the publisher gets to claim credibility for being 'bold' enough to go this route. Like I said, these are intangibles. But as Marvel has shown us recently, public image can make a huge difference. Incidentally, Marvel recently stated that it does not consider OGNs a viable option for the foreseeable future. I'll deal in more depth with Marvel's effect on this market next month.)

The final obstacle to most of these arguments is cash flow; that the publisher simply doesn't have that much money right now to bankroll these projects. In this hypothetical example (given the time between commission, solicitation, going on sale, and receiving cheques from Diamond) the publisher will need at least a year's operating money, plus all the costs involved with this book, before those cheques come in. Possibly more.

But one way around this is surely to phase them in. Once a few of these books are out there and selling (which, all other things being equal, they will), the money they bring in can be used to bankroll further projects - lessening the need for single issues at all. We're talking a scale of a few years, sure, but it would happen.

Though it's about as likely as sprouting wings tomorrow, I'd love to see some figures on this from people who actually have access to them. Perhaps I'm too idealistic for my own good, but I can't see what's stopping people from taking this approach - especially the larger, better-capitalised publishers.

I want it all, and I want it now.

Next month, Part The Second: The Cynicism. In which we turn things on their head and consider how a badly-handled OGN market could spell disaster.

Antony Johnston is the author of JULIUS, SPOOKED and THE LONG HAUL. His new ongoing series WASTELAND begins in July 2006.

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