When my editor asked me if I wanted to do a Year in Review column, I naturally said no. Reviewing the year takes longer than you think. It means going back and trying to remember what happened in January 2001, as opposed to December 2000. Fact checking. Research. This is way too much effort.

So what I'm going to do here is look ahead to 2002 and speculate on what's going to happen in the next twelve months. Not only do I like to fool myself that this will make for a more interesting column, I know for sure that it will be a damn sight less time-consuming to write. Look, it's Christmas. I'm on holiday.

2001 has felt like Marvel's year. This is partly because Marvel has undergone a creative resurgence under the Jemas/Quesada regime. It's also because no other bugger was doing anything comparably interesting, certainly not DC. The question for Marvel is how to keep up the momentum in 2002. Until now, it has been able to produce a steady stream of relaunches and new directions, as the junk of the previous regime has been steadily banished. But the point is rapidly coming where there is simply nothing left to relaunch.

By my count, the only Marvel books that Quesada hasn't either relaunched already, or at least announced an upcoming new creative team for, are THOR, THUNDERBOLTS, WOLVERINE, CAPTAIN MARVEL and SPIDER-GIRL. (Come to think of it, two of those books are terrible and would really benefit from an overhaul.)

'Have you let graphical literature into your life?' Nonetheless, Marvel needs something different to build on what it has achieved. So far, the Quesada/Jemas regime has not been particularly good at pushing all-new ideas. BROTHERHOOD died on its arse, and deservedly so. BLOODSTONE and NIGHTSIDE have sunk without trace, which is hardly surprising given that they were shoved out there with zero publicity.

The relaunched X-FORCE is doing quite well for itself, and SENTRY had a lot going for it, but Marvel seems more minded to follow the old DC policy of revamping and relaunching old cancelled characters just for the hell of it. This does not feel like the best way forward.

The Max imprint, in particular, seems over-reliant on relaunching old concepts - the sort of formula that Vertigo has already ridden into the ground. Aside from ALIAS, the Max imprint has been a damb squib so far - FURY and US WAR MACHINE were both very underwhelming books. While HOWARD THE DUCK and NIGHT NURSE seem more promising, the Max imprint has a lot to prove in 2002.

Even if Marvel can't keep up the same level of initiative in 2002, though, they still don't have much to worry about from DC, which appears to have spent 2001 in hibernation. I get the occasional e-mail asking why I write about them so rarely. Well, it's because they do hardly anything interesting. DC seems to be coasting along the way it always has. Its mainstream DC Universe line is still drowning in multi-part crossovers, and generally seems unaware that 1995 has finished.

Of course, DC will be getting 2002 off to a flying start with BATMAN: THE TEN CENT ADVENTURE. I won't be reading it, because it's part one of a megacrossover lasting several months and stretching over a ton of titles, and all I see is the huge cost of buying the whole story. It's a story that doesn't interest me in the slightest, and is being hyped in such a way as to give away large chunks of the plot.

Ten cents would be very good for a self-contained story, but it isn't a self-contained story, and if I have no intention of buying the rest of the story, what use is chapter one to me? Yes, I could go round people's houses like a stray Jehovah's Witness giving out copies and muttering, "Have you let graphical literature into your life?", but since I'm not going to bother reading it myself, I'm hardly minded to foist the thing on anyone else. Best of luck to DC with it, and I hope it brings some more readers in the door, but using it as a loss-leader for a crossover may have sunk its chances of achieving - or deserving - that long term impact.

'There's a chance 2002 will see the public self-destruction of Todd Macfarlane.' The other DC imprints have had a shaky year. WildStorm seems determined to shoot itself in the foot at every turn, but then I wrote about that a few weeks back. Vertigo has struggled with its recent launches - OUTLAW NATION is being axed, the glacial CRUSADES hasn't caught on, and the less said about CODENAME: KNOCKOUT the better.

LUCIFER and HELLBLAZER are doing alright, though, and TRANSMETROPOLITAN is around for a few months yet. Still, Vertigo's glory days, when they were trendsetters, are long behind them now. It's hard to get worked up about DC these days - they keep things ticking over, but there's not much sense of innovation coming from them. They're looking old and tired, and that's what they need to address. Unfortunately, I see no reason to expect that they will. Let's see if they prove me wrong.

Image has quietly settled into a role as an eclectic publisher that is all about the individual titles, not the corporate image. Todd McFarlane is still there, of course, and no doubt will be making an enormous twat of himself in 2002 as he continues his public squabble with Neil Gaiman over the rights to MIRACLEMAN.

I don't expect to see any actual MIRACLEMAN comics next year, but the mudslinging looks set to deteriorate even further. With Saint Neil's fundraising project due to see print some time next year, this one isn't going to go away. There is, however, the very real possibility that in 2002 we will get to witness the public self-destruction of Todd McFarlane. How far will he have to sink before people begin to feel even slightly sympathetic toward him? The sad career trajectory of Rob Liefeld suggests a long slow decline into humiliation and irrelevance.

CrossGen is starting to show cracks in its business plan with Mark Waid leaving their employment and yet remaining to write RUSE - the sort of arrangement they're really not meant to have. They continue to churn out the books, but that breakthrough hit remains elusive. CrossGen's stated ambitions involve them being a damn sight more prominent in the marketplace than they currently are. Quite sensibly, they've always budgeted to lose money at first. But if CrossGen carries on the way it is, and can't make the breakthrough, surely something's got to give in the end. In 2002? Well, maybe.

'I'm expecting a swing away from the philosophy that trades are the way forward.' Oni is becoming the most reliable indie publisher for readers wanting something different without being arthouse. It's continuing to build an audience, and has become a launchpad for new and upcoming creators. 2002 should be a good year for Oni - the odd printing error aside, they're still moving from strength to strength, and there's every reason to think their profile and importance will continue to grow. Ah, it warms the heart to think of it.

In 2002, comics will not achieve mainstream acceptance as an art form. Much more importantly, comics will also not achieve mainstream acceptance as a form of entertainment for adults. (Do people really still think the general public could give a toss whether or not comics are an "art form"? It never stopped them watching TV.)

After a year of the party line being that trade paperbacks are the way forward, I'm expecting a heavy backlash. Too much superhero material clogging up the bookstores; too many more books axed with mutterings about the "wait for the trade" philosophy being to blame. The trade paperback is, in many ways, an artistically superior format to the monthly serial, but commercial realities mean that the "wait for the trade" movement is premature.

I'm expecting a swing away from that philosophy as the trade paperback cheerleaders find that more and more of those trades they were waiting for - and which they were never promised in the first place - never see print, due to the comic having been cancelled for catastrophic sales at issue #10. Artistic purism can't prevail over reality forever. If you want to read these marginal publications, then some of them need your money up front.

And possibly the thing I'm looking forward to most in 2002: Marvel's silent month will be over. How I loathe that gimmick. It's worth starting a new year just to be rid of it.

Now, shoo. Eat turkey. Drink heavily. Stand on freezing street corners in a blizzard waiting for midnight. Whatever it is you do. There's another year of new stories and industry rumour-mongering to prepare for. You know you love it.

Paul O'Brien is the author of the weekly X-AXIS comics review.

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